On June 24, 2022, Conservatives around the United States celebrated as the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, removing protection for abortion access on a federal level. Many around this nation celebrated the ruling as a political win for their cause. I knew differently. I also believe that many Conservative politicians could see what would happen next. While it was a blow to women’s rights, it was by no means a political win for Conservatives. I have to believe that some wise Conservative politicians could see that this ruling spelled political turmoil for their cause. You see, with Roe v. Wade serving as the law of the land, none of them had to seriously campaign on the issue. With the ruling gone, it would be the biggest campaign issue for the foreseeable future. They had to read the polls, right?
With the striking of judicial precedent, the issue of abortion rights was front and center in the national political dialogue. Regardless of any individual’s opinion on reproductive freedom, roughly two-thirds of our country believes that access to safe and legal abortions should be protected. If it wasn’t protected by judicial precedent, how would it be protected? The only other way possible way would be through the will of the people at the ballot box. Conservative politicians would no longer be able to hide behind the court ruling, which in essence made abortion a non-issue when it came to an election. Roe v. Wade acted as an insulating, protective barrier that would prevent abortion from impacting their political ambitions. Last night, we saw that very issue drive elections in Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky.
In Virginia, their Governor had been campaigning for Republicans to retake their State Senate, which had been controlled by Democrats. They didn’t. In fact, Republicans lost control of the State House, which had been controlled by the Republican party. The central issue of the campaign…a 15-week abortion ban. In Kentucky, a Republican stronghold, re-elected their Democratic Governor last night. The central issue of the campaign…reproductive freedom.
In Ohio, voters overwhelmingly voted to amend their State Constitution to include the right to access an abortion. This was after a failed attempt by Conservatives to change the way their Constitution could be amended, to prevent that issue from going to the voters yesterday. Obviously, that effort was also unsuccessful. Ohio went for Donald Trump by 8 points in the 2020 election.
The Conservative push to overturn Roe v. Wade may turn out to be one of the biggest political miscalculations this country has ever seen. What is clear, abortion rights are a central issue to voters in this country, regardless of how red or blue their state happens to be. Republican candidates seeking statewide or national office must be fretting about the decision they will have to make. Which side of the abortion debate will they tie their aspirations to? If they remain in the abortion abolishment camp, we’ve seen what the results will likely be. If they jump ship, likely, many would never survive a primary challenge from the right. Neither option gives them much hope for 2024.
The Curated Man 